Bowling Balls, Floodwaters, and Tariffs: Another Trump Week in America

Texas drowns, Gaza burns, Japan seethes, and Trump is out here threatening America’s biggest investor with mythical “bowling ball tests” while bragging about “winning.”

Good morning! Donald Trump paused just long enough on the tarmac to deliver a stream of contradictions and self-congratulations before touching down in Washington. He said he’s “very close” with Governor Abbott and “everybody in Texas,” offering prayers for what he called a “hundred-year catastrophe,” while conveniently dodging questions over whether cuts to the National Weather Service and FEMA staffing made Texans more vulnerable. “They did not,” he insisted, blamed Biden anyway, retracted that blame, then called the disaster “just so horrible to watch.” Drama of the century, folks.

He said he might visit Texas on Friday, but only if he doesn’t get in the way of recovery efforts, though not before clarifying that it would’ve been better if he were president instead of losing a “rigged election” (his words) that he claims single-handedly caused the floods, the war in Ukraine, the October Hamas attacks, inflation, Afghanistan, and Iran tensions. Let’s call it the Trump Attribution Extravaganza™.

On trade, Trump is apparently planning to send out letters announcing tariffs “maybe 12, maybe 15” on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday, depending on the country, with tariffs set to take effect August 1. Deals, he said, might be signed “this week,” though which countries are involved was left as vague as ever. Trump claimed “most countries” will be done by July 9, though the rates are “being set right now.”

On Israel, Trump told reporters he would tell Netanyahu they are “close” to a Gaza ceasefire deal that could see “quite a few hostages” released this week, though he provided no details, and Trump’s own officials have not confirmed the timeline.

Behind Trump’s casual optimism lies a complex, high-stakes diplomatic push. Israel and Hamas are holding indirect ceasefire talks in Qatar, mediated by Egypt and Qatar, aiming for a 60-day truce and phased hostage releases. The talks resumed after last month’s 12-day Israeli air war against Iran, which backs Hamas, and come as Israeli society grows weary of a 21-month war that has devastated Gaza while failing to fully dismantle Hamas.

The U.S.-backed proposal reportedly includes phased Israeli troop withdrawals from parts of Gaza, a stepwise release of hostages, and negotiations on a permanent end to the war. But it’s a fragile dance: Hamas demands a full end to hostilities before releasing all hostages, while Israel insists it will continue fighting until Hamas is dismantled.

Asked about Elon Musk’s “America Party,” Trump brushed it off as “ridiculous,” calling third parties “confusing” while proclaiming the Republican Party a “tremendous success.” Musk, Trump said, “can have fun with it.”

On Ukraine, Trump called his recent call with Zelensky “good” and his call with Putin “very disappointing,” leaving it unclear whether he plans any change in U.S. policy or is simply venting after a weekend on the green.

Finally, Trump was asked about the Washington Commanders stadium deal, pausing his global grievances tour just long enough to share what really matters: branding. He noted that he wouldn’t have changed the team’s name from the Redskins because “it just doesn’t have the same ring to me,” adding, “winning can make everything sound good.” The stadium in question, proposed for a federally owned site at RFK, has become a hot potato between the District and Congress, with local leaders wary of handing over prime land for billionaire team owners while housing costs skyrocket and city services are cut. Trump, ever eager to play real estate mogul-in-chief, hinted he might intervene to “help them out,” reminding reporters that “ultimately, we can control that, the federal government ultimately controls it.” It was a revealing moment: a former president facing floods, global wars, and an economy teetering under the weight of bad policy, yet ready to leverage federal power over a football stadium because it makes for good optics, and because in Trump’s world, real estate deals are never off the table, especially when there’s a photo op to be had.

And that was it, Trump’s summary of the state of the world before boarding his plane, a moment of scattered declarations ahead of a week likely to bring fresh chaos to Washington as trade tensions, Middle East negotiations, and the disaster response in Texas all collide with the reality of an administration that prefers press scrums to planning.

While Trump was rambling about tariffs on the tarmac, another diplomatic mess was brewing, this time with Japan, America’s largest investor, top foreign holder of U.S. debt, and a country that directly employs nearly a million Americans. You’d think this might earn them a little respect, but not in Trump World.

Instead, Trump spent the week publicly degrading Japan, threatening 30–35% tariffs, complaining they won’t buy American rice (they do), and whining that they won’t buy American cars (they also do, but not enough, apparently, to soothe Trump’s ego). At one point, he declared he would send them a “nice letter, probably one page or a page and a half at most” telling them how lucky they are to do business in America, like a mafia don threatening your kneecaps while complimenting your suit.

Japan, for its part, is not having it. Prime Minister Ashiba made clear they will “protect national interests at all costs” and will not be bullied into arbitrary Trump deadlines. He reminded the world that Japan is the largest foreign investor in the U.S., holding $1.15 trillion in Treasury securities, and creating jobs while generating $82 billion in U.S. exports, not to mention the fact that they’ve increased rice imports 120-fold in the past year, blowing up Trump’s “they won’t take our rice” talking point.

Trump, meanwhile, ranted on Air Force One that Japan “needs rice so badly but they won’t take rice,” pivoting to his favorite grievance that “they send us millions of cars, and we didn’t give them one car in ten years,” claiming the Japanese run mysterious “bowling ball tests” on American cars to keep them out of the country, a conspiracy so weird even Fox News couldn’t back him up. Japan was left blinking in confusion, confirming there is no such thing as a “bowling ball test,” because why would there be?

Back in Japan, frustration with Trump’s reckless trade threats is fueling political backlash. Polls show 85% of Japanese voters oppose making concessions to Trump even if it hurts the bilateral relationship, while only 15% believe a deal should be made to avoid tariffs. Prime Minister Ashiba, facing elections on July 20, is under pressure to stand firm, with Japanese voters increasingly viewing the U.S. as an unreliable partner. Trump’s antics have become such a spectacle that Japanese opposition leaders are openly calling his tactics “extortion by juvenile delinquents.”

Meanwhile, the real-world stakes are massive. Japan is not just any trade partner; it is a cornerstone of America’s economic stability, investing in factories, communities, and Treasury bonds while anchoring security in the Pacific. But in Trump’s world, none of that matters if it doesn’t produce a photo op or a Truth Social post bragging about “winning.”

While Trump was bragging about “booming jobs numbers” and the stock market’s glow, the reality on the ground is much darker, as Max from UNFTR explained in a crisp, devastating breakdown for MeidasTouch.

Yes, the topline non-farm payroll report showed 147,000 jobs added, a “better-than-expected” number that pundits eagerly latched onto. But dig beneath that headline, and you’ll find fewer Americans actually working despite the added jobs, with the labor force participation rate dipping to 62% and the “true participation rate” closer to 59% when discouraged workers are counted. Only 47% of the total U.S. population is working, supporting the other half while birth rates decline and retirements accelerate.

Meanwhile, 234,000 Americans joined the ranks of the marginally attached in June, and the number of discouraged workers leapt to 637,000. These are people who either can’t find meaningful work where they live, are tied down by caregiving responsibilities, or have given up entirely on the labor market. They are now in the crosshairs of the GOP’s newly passed budget bill, which slashes SNAP, Medicaid, and safety nets precisely when families need them most.

The reason? To fund trillions in tax breaks for the wealthy, including provisions that will reduce charitable giving by an estimated $81 billion over the next decade, ensuring fewer resources for communities to support those left behind.

But the economic rot isn’t confined to households. A second liquidity scare hit the repo markets on June 30, forcing the Fed to pump in $11 billion overnight to stabilize the system, an ominous echo of previous cracks in the global financial system. This liquidity stress is not happening because of surging economic health, but because of debt-driven fragility as corporations and households alike teeter under unsustainable obligations while their incomes shrink.

Max’s warning is clear: by kneecapping the American consumer, the GOP has guaranteed that corporate America will be next, triggering layoffs, defaults, and the beginning of a vicious economic cycle that can cascade into a wider crisis.

And all of it is happening under the banner of “fiscal responsibility” and “freedom,” as the wealthiest Americans extract even more from an economy teetering on the edge.

As Max says, it’s always darkest before the dawn, but only if we are willing to fight, stay informed, and organize for what comes next.